Ireland faces “care capacity crunch”: At least 15,000 extra nursing home beds needed by 2040 – NHI

Thursday September 18, 2025

ESRI warns demand could surge by up to 80% as population ages; NHI calls for urgent action on capacity, workforce, and equitable access

September 18 – A major conference will hear today that Ireland will require at least 15,000 additional nursing home care beds by 2040 and unless swift and decisive action is taken the shortfall will become unmanageable for older people requiring residential care.

The stark warning, based on new projections from the ESRI, will be presented today at the Nursing Homes Ireland (NHI) Annual Conference 2025 in Kilkenny. The event will bring together over 500 delegates, including nursing home care providers, care staff, sector leaders, policymakers, researchers, and exhibitors, making it the stand-out national forum for the sector and a showcase of its collective strength.

Demand Driven by an Ageing Population

The ESRI will highlight that in higher growth scenarios, the shortfall could rise to over 20,000 beds, representing a 61-80% increase in demand compared with 2022.

The lower projection equates to an average of more than 1,000 new beds each and every year over the next 15 years, a figure that assumes no further closures of existing nursing homes.

Recent ESRI analysis confirms that population ageing is the single biggest driver of need, with the number of people aged 85 and over set to more than double by 2040. The median age of nursing home care residents is also projected to rise, from 85 years in 2022 to 88 years in 2040, creating additional pressure for specialist care and staffing. Even under the “progress” scenario, which assumes healthier ageing and expanded home supports, demand for long-stay beds is still projected to rise by more than 60%.

Dr Brendan Walsh, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI, will present these findings at the conference, discussing their policy implications for planning, capacity, and the continuum of older person care.

Location Matters as Much as Numbers

NHI warns that without urgent action to expand capacity, future demand will quickly outpace supply.

Tadhg Daly, CEO of NHI, said:

“The ESRI projections make the reality clear: Ireland faces a care capacity challenge. Population ageing alone will drive the need for more than 15,000 new nursing home care beds by 2040 – over 1,000 beds each year, every year. Older people and families are already feeling the strain, and unless we act now, this gap will become unmanageable.

“Equally important is where these beds are provided. If the limited new capacity is concentrated only in urban centres, many communities will be left behind, forcing older people to move far from their families and support networks to access care.

“We need a whole-of-society approach to plan ambitiously for the care of our ageing population. With the right investment, a strong policy framework, and a valued workforce, we can strengthen and empower a continuum of care that supports ageing well and ensures older people live with dignity and choice.”

Addressing the Workforce Challenge

NHI also warned that capacity planning must go hand-in-hand with investment in the workforce. Meeting rising care needs will require a national workforce plan for long-term care, including structured career pathways, enhanced training, and recognition of the vital role staff play in supporting older people with increasingly complex needs.

Mr Daly added:

“The health and social care workforce is a global challenge, we need to raise the professional standing of social care staff to continue to attract and retain staff. We need to invest in people, through education, training, and career progression, to ensure nursing home care remains high quality, person-centred, and sustainable. The future of care depends on the people who deliver it every day.”

“It is imperative that we strategically plan for future workforce requirements by significantly expanding training capacity within our colleges and academic institutions, ensuring a steady flow of well-trained caring professionals to meet the growing demand.”

A Whole-of-Society Response Needed

The Minister for Older People, Kieran O’Donnell TD, will also address the conference, underlining the importance of political leadership in shaping Ireland’s response to demographic change.

In recent months, NHI has held constructive meetings with the Minister and the Department of Health, and will continue to collaborate with all stakeholders to ensure the future of nursing home care is sustainable and prepared for the demographic challenge ahead.

The demographic challenge will be a central theme at today’s NHI Annual Conference, which also features sessions on safe staffing, the role of technology in supporting care, cultural diversity, and tackling systemic ageism.

NHI says the scale of this challenge should be seen as an opportunity to invest in care, communities, and people, rather than simply as a cost.

NOTES:

• Press Release from ESRI Launch, June 30 2025: https://www.esri.ie/news/new-esri-report-projects-that-long-term-residential-care-and-home-support-requirements-will
• ESRI projections (National Capacity Projections 2022–2040 – Older People’s Services) show Ireland will require between 47,588 and 53,266 long-stay residential care beds by 2040, compared with 29,579 in 2022, an increase of 61-80%.
• This equates to a requirement for at least 15,000 additional long-term care beds by 2040 (assuming no further closures), or an average of over 1,000 beds every year.
• Demand for short-stay beds is projected to rise from 3,745 in 2022 to between 6,431 and 7,265 by 2040, a 72-94% increase.
• Population ageing is the single largest driver of demand. Increases in the population aged 80 years and over account for more than 80% of projected growth.
• The median age of nursing home residents is projected to rise from 85 years in 2022 to 88 years in 2040, increasing demand for more specialised and complex care.
• The HSE Capital Plan 2025 and the National Development Plan are primarily focused on the replacement and refurbishment of existing public beds, with limited delivery of true net new capacity.
• NHI argues that new capacity must be planned and delivered across all regions, not concentrated in urban centres, to ensure equitable and sustainable access to care close to people’s communities.