ESRI projections reinforce urgent need for national nursing home care policy
Monday June 30, 2025Nursing Homes Ireland: ESRI projections reinforce urgent need for national nursing home care policy
NHI seeks meeting with Minister/Department of Health and HSE to work collaboratively to deliver the required capacity across all providers – public, private and voluntary.
Nursing Homes Ireland (NHI) has renewed its call for a dedicated national nursing home care policy, following the publication today of a new ESRI report projecting a minimum 60% increase in demand for long-term residential care by 2040.
The capacity review, commissioned by the Department of Health, underscores the scale of demographic change Ireland is now facing. By 2040, the number of people aged 85 and over, those most likely to require complex long-term care, is set to more than double.
- Short stay bed requirements are projected to grow from 3,745 beds in 2022, to between 6,430 to 7,265 beds by 2040, growth of between 72 to 94%.
- Long stay bed requirements are projected to grow from 29,579 beds in 2022, to between 47,590 to 53,270 beds by 2040, growth of between 61 to 80%.
At the lower end of the ESRI projections, we will require 21,056 minimum additional nursing home beds by 2040. This equates to minimum of 1,403 annually (assumption of no loss of current beds) every year for the next 15 years.
As highlighted by the ESRI, Ireland’s ageing population will require a major and sustained expansion of care services. Yet nursing home care, despite being a core pillar of older person care, still lacks a national policy framework to guide its development, integration, and long-term sustainability.
NHI has written to the Department of Health, the Minister for Older People, and the HSE to request an urgent meeting. We stand ready to work collaboratively with the Department, the HSE, and the new Regional Health Areas to ensure additional capacity is delivered in the right locations and supported by the right policy framework.
Reacting to the report, NHI CEO Tadhg Daly said:
“The latest ESRI’s projections once again confirm that Ireland is heading towards a major care capacity crisis unless we begin coordinated, long-term planning now.
“We urgently need a national nursing home care policy to include public, private and voluntary that is rights-based, person-led, and fully embedded in the wider continuum of care for older people.
Critically, the challenge is not just the overall number of beds required, but where those beds will be needed. Planning must take account of regional need and population distribution to ensure older people can access care in or near their communities.
“If we continue with a fragmented approach, the system will place unfair pressure on families, residents, staff, care providers, and the wider health service.”
NHI will publish a new insights paper on 15 July, based on a national roundtable held in February 2025. The discussion brought together providers, clinicians, advocates, and policymakers to address the serious gap in national planning for residential care.
“We must celebrate our ageing population with an ambitious plan across the continuum of care and support. Residential care must not be a policy afterthought,” Mr Daly added. “It is a critical part of the healthcare continuum, and of how we support people to age with dignity and connection. Delivering on that requires strategic vision, cross-sector collaboration, and a long-overdue policy framework fit for the future.
Through its HOMES Strategy, NHI continues to champion the voice of residents and members, motivate policymakers, and shape the provision of care for Ireland’s ageing population. Today’s ESRI report further reinforces the need for a collaborative, values-driven response.
For more information or to receive the NHI insights paper when published, contact: communications@nhi.ie
Notes for Editor:
The policy will require major financial provision too:
- Clifden Public Nursing Home HSE
Approval for a project to build 40 public nursing home beds in Clifden at a cost of €35.34m or €883.5k per bed
- Public Nursing Home PPP
Under the terms of the contract Equisisk will lease the premises to the HSE for an annual payment (unitary charge) of €24 m for a period of 25 years.
Cost of €472,000 per bed to build with HSE paying €870 per week per bed for the supply for a period of 25 years.
If the state were to build the entire capacity of 21,056 required by 2040 this would require capital budget of €10 billion based on the 2019 PPP cost.